Abstract

This study examines the impact of climate-driven conflicts on pastoralist communities in Chad from 2013 to 2024. Using a conflict–livelihoods analytical framework, the research combined climate data, conflict incident records, and household surveys from 2,900 pastoralist and agro-pastoralist households across the Sahelian and Saharan zones. Qualitative data were gathered through interviews with 42 community elders, local officials, and humanitarian actors. Findings reveal that prolonged droughts, shrinking grazing land, and unpredictable rainfall intensified competition over water points and pasture, contributing to rising conflicts between pastoralist and farming communities. Spatial analysis showed a strong correlation between vegetation decline and conflict hotspots. Livelihood impacts included reduced livestock productivity, forced migration, loss of assets, and disrupted traditional mobility routes. Regression analysis demonstrated that climate stress significantly predicted conflict occurrence (p < 0.01), while conflict exposure strongly influenced household food insecurity and displacement patterns. Adaptation strategies such as negotiated grazing corridors, water-harvesting infrastructure, and community peace committees yielded partial success but were undermined by weak local governance and limited state presence. The study concludes that climate-induced conflicts pose severe threats to pastoralist livelihoods in Chad. Recommendations include investing in climate-resilient water systems, strengthening local conflict-resolution institutions, improving early-warning systems, and expanding livelihood diversification programs. Long-term stability will require integrated climate, security, and development interventions.