Abstract

Purpose: This paper critically examines the trajectories of urbanization in Africa and how these pathways interact with long-term development scenarios across the continent. It interrogates whether urbanization acts as a driver of inclusive economic growth or fuels entrenched inequalities and environmental stress.

Design/Methodology: Using quantitative modelling techniques grounded in spatial expansion indicators and scenario projections, this study employs Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) frameworks to simulate urban land expansion trends from 2020 to 2060 across African countries. The analysis calculates urban land area changes and uses expansion indices to characterize growth patterns. It further integrates macro-level demographic and economic datasets on urbanization dynamics to assess implications for economic productivity, infrastructure demand, and service delivery.

Findings: Results reveal that Africa’s urban land area will expand significantly regardless of scenario, with more pronounced growth under development oriented SSPs. The patterns of expansion vary widely, with compact growth in higher income contexts and sprawl in lower resource settings. Notably, informal settlements and governance capacity emerge as systemic constraints on realizing inclusive development.

Originality/Value: This paper synthesizes scenario modelling with urban economic frameworks to provide evidence on the shape of future African urbanization and its implications for development planning. It highlights that without proactive governance and spatial planning, urbanization may reinforce inequities rather than serve as a development catalyst.