Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between public expenditure efficiency and social protection outcomes in South-East Nigeria, with particular emphasis on access to social protection services, poverty reduction and human capital development. Drawing on a balanced panel of 50 state-year observations covering Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu and Imo States between 2015 and 2024, the study employed a quantitative research design using secondary data from government fiscal reports, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletins and administrative records of social protection programmes. Descriptive statistics and fixed-effects panel regression models were employed to examine variations in expenditure efficiency and its association with the three dimensions of social protection performance. The descriptive findings indicated an average public expenditure efficiency score of 68.42%, suggesting considerable scope for improving the conversion of fiscal resources into social welfare outcomes. The reported regression estimates revealed positive and statistically significant associations between expenditure efficiency and access to social protection services (β = 0.584, p < 0.05), poverty reduction outcomes (β = 0.491, p < 0.05) and human capital development outcomes (β = 0.638, p < 0.05). The largest estimated coefficient was observed for human capital development, although differences in coefficients do not independently establish differences in effect magnitude. These findings suggest that the quality of public resource utilisation is an important consideration in understanding subnational social protection performance. However, the observational design and potential interdependence between the expenditure efficiency measure and outcome indicators limit causal interpretation. The study contributes to debates on fiscal governance and inclusive development by highlighting the importance of expenditure quality alongside budgetary allocations. It recommends strengthening public financial management, expenditure tracking, institutional accountability, programme-level monitoring and timely fund disbursement to improve the effectiveness and equity of social protection delivery in South-East Nigeria.