Abstract

This study investigates the techno-economic and environmental feasibility of adopting Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) as a primary fuel for transportation in Nigeria. With rising fuel costs and increasing environmental concerns, CNG presents a promising alternative to conventional petrol and diesel vehicles. The research uses a mixed-methods approach, combining quantitative machine learning models, economic analysis, and environmental impact assessments. The machine learning models, including neural networks, gradient boosting machines, and random forests, were used to predict the suitability of CNG vehicles in urban, suburban, and intercity transport settings. Results showed that CNG vehicles offer significant fuel cost savings, up to 30% compared to petrol and diesel vehicles, while also delivering substantial reductions in emissions, including CO2, NOx, and particulate matter. Economically, CNG adoption is viable for both small operators and large fleet owners, with the initial costs of retrofitting or purchasing CNG vehicles offset by long-term operational savings. The study also conducted a life cycle assessment (LCA), demonstrating that CNG vehicles have a lower overall environmental footprint compared to their petrol and diesel counterparts. Despite these benefits, challenges such as limited refueling infrastructure, safety concerns, and the initial cost of retrofitting remain significant barriers. Policy recommendations include financial incentives for retrofitting, expansion of CNG refueling stations, strengthening safety regulations, and public awareness campaigns. The study concludes that with appropriate investments in infrastructure and regulatory frameworks, CNG adoption can significantly contribute to sustainable transportation in Nigeria.