THE ROLE OF ETHNIC IDENTITY IN VOTER BEHAVIOUR: A CASE STUDY OF THE 2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN NIGERIA

THE ROLE OF ETHNIC IDENTITY IN VOTER BEHAVIOUR: A CASE STUDY OF THE 2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN NIGERIA

CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background of the Study

Ethnic identity remains a dominant factor in shaping political behavior in Nigeria, a country characterized by deep ethno-religious diversity and historical grievances. Since independence in 1960, ethnicity has influenced voter alignment, political party formation, and electoral outcomes. Nigeria's federal structure, although designed to promote unity in diversity, has often reinforced ethnic cleavages, making identity politics a central theme in national elections (Suberu, 2010; Mustapha, 2014). Voter behavior, particularly during presidential elections, often reflects ethnic affiliations and perceptions of ethnic inclusion or marginalization.

The 2023 presidential election was one of the most ethnically sensitive contests in Nigeria’s democratic history. It featured leading candidates representing the three major ethnic groups: Bola Ahmed Tinubu (Yoruba), Atiku Abubakar (Fulani), and Peter Obi (Igbo). Each candidate enjoyed overwhelming support in their respective regions, signaling a reinforcement of ethnic loyalties in the electoral process. The rise of Peter Obi, especially among the Igbo and youth across regions, introduced new dynamics to ethnic voting behavior, particularly on social media and urban platforms. However, regional voting patterns still demonstrated ethnic polarization, raising concerns about national integration and the maturity of Nigeria's democracy (Ibrahim & Nwankwo, 2023).

The tendency for voters to align along ethnic lines stems from decades of perceived exclusion, resource competition, and power-sharing imbalances. Politicians often exploit these sentiments by appealing to ethnic solidarity, thereby undermining issue-based politics. This behavior is not unique to Nigeria but is particularly intense given the country's history of military rule, civil war, and regional disparities (Osaghae & Suberu, 2005). Despite the existence of a constitutional framework promoting national unity, including the federal character principle, Nigeria’s electoral culture continues to reflect a persistent ethnic lens.

This study investigates how ethnic identity influenced voter behavior during the 2023 presidential election, focusing on the extent to which ethnicity determined voting preferences, campaign strategies, and regional electoral outcomes. By focusing on this election, the study aims to deepen understanding of how ethnic considerations continue to shape political behavior in Nigeria’s evolving democratic context.

1.2 Statement of the Problem

Despite twenty-four years of uninterrupted democracy, Nigeria’s electoral behavior remains deeply rooted in ethnic affiliations. The 2023 presidential election, which featured a tri-ethnic contest, exemplified this trend. Although the election was celebrated for expanding political participation and mobilizing new voters, it also laid bare the ethnic undercurrents that continue to determine electoral outcomes. The dominance of ethnic voting patterns raises concerns about the effectiveness of democratic consolidation and the legitimacy of electoral mandates.

Although ethnicity has always been a factor in Nigerian elections, the 2023 election intensified the conversation, particularly with the emergence of a strong third-party candidate, Peter Obi, whose candidacy was widely supported by the Igbo and a segment of the youth population across ethnic lines. However, the extent to which this support represented an ethnic reaction or a broader demand for reform remains debated. Furthermore, the significant ethnic polarization of voting outcomes in the North, South-West, and South-East suggests that ethnic identity remains a powerful lens through which political decisions are made.

There is a critical need to examine the implications of this trend on national integration, policy prioritization, and democratic stability. While previous studies have explored ethnic voting patterns in earlier elections, there is limited research on the specific dynamics of the 2023 election. As Nigeria moves toward future electoral cycles, understanding the impact of ethnic identity on voter behavior becomes essential to promoting inclusive governance and electoral reform.

1.3 Objectives of the Study

To examine the influence of ethnic identity on voter behavior during the 2023 presidential election in Nigeria.

To identify the regional variations in voting patterns along ethnic lines.

To evaluate the implications of ethnic-based voting for national unity and democratic development.

1.4 Research Questions

How did ethnic identity influence voter behavior during the 2023 presidential election in Nigeria?

What were the regional variations in ethnic-based voting patterns during the election?

What are the implications of ethnic voting for Nigeria’s democratic consolidation?

1.5 Research Hypotheses

H₀₁: Ethnic identity did not significantly influence voter behavior during the 2023 presidential election.

H₀₂: There is no significant difference in regional voting patterns based on ethnic affiliations.

1.6 Significance of the Study

This study contributes to the understanding of the intersection between ethnic identity and democratic behavior in Nigeria. It offers insights to political scientists, policy makers, electoral bodies, and civil society organizations seeking to reform electoral systems and promote issue-based politics. The findings can also inform civic education campaigns aimed at fostering national identity over ethnic loyalties. Furthermore, the study provides a scholarly basis for addressing ethnic tensions through inclusive political reforms and inter-ethnic dialogue.

1.7 Scope and Limitation of the Study

The study is focused on the 2023 presidential election in Nigeria and examines voter behavior across selected states that represent Nigeria’s major ethnic blocs. It is limited to analyzing the role of ethnic identity and does not extensively cover other voter motivations such as religion or socio-economic status. Data constraints and the politicization of ethnicity in post-election discussions may also limit the accuracy of some respondents’ disclosures.

1.8 Operational Definition of Terms

Ethnic Identity: A sense of belonging to a particular ethnic group, often influencing social and political behavior.

Voter Behaviour: The decision-making processes and preferences exhibited by individuals during elections.

Presidential Election: A national electoral process for selecting the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

Ethnic Voting: The tendency of voters to support political candidates based on shared ethnic affiliation.

1.9 Structure of the Study

This study is organized into five chapters. Chapter One introduces the research topic, problem statement, objectives, and hypotheses. Chapter Two reviews existing literature and theoretical frameworks on ethnicity and voting behavior. Chapter Three outlines the methodology. Chapter Four presents the data analysis and discussion. Chapter Five provides conclusions, policy recommendations, and suggestions for future research.

References

Ibrahim, J., & Nwankwo, C. (2023). Ethnicity and Political Mobilization in Nigeria’s 2023 Presidential Election. Journal of African Elections, 22(1), 45–67.

Mustapha, A. R. (2014). Identity, Ethnicity and the State in Nigeria. Dakar: CODESRIA.

Osaghae, E. E., & Suberu, R. T. (2005). A history of identities, violence, and stability in Nigeria. Centre for Research on Inequality, Human Security and Ethnicity (CRISE), Working Paper 6.

Suberu, R. T. (2010). The Nigerian federal system: Performance, problems and prospects. Journal of Contemporary African Studies, 28(4), 459–477.